“The meeting was a necessary reset in tone and diplomacy, but unless it is followed by tangible policy reform and strategic engagement, the upside for South Africa will be limited,”- Chris Hattingh, Executive Director of the CRA
The Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA) has welcomed the meeting between President Cyril Ramaphosa and U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C., as a diplomatically significant event given months of tension between the two administrations. The CRA believes that this engagement marks a potential turning point for South Africa–U.S. relations, if the South African government can now follow through with action.
“The symbolism of the meeting matters, but the substance that follows will matter more,” said Chris Hattingh, Executive Director of the CRA. “The fact that President Ramaphosa refocused the conversation on trade and investment despite the meeting being sidetracked at moments, shows an awareness of what’s at stake for South Africa’s economic future.”
According to the CRA, South Africa must now build on this diplomatic momentum by focusing on several priority areas:
Securing U.S. Participation in the G20: South Africa’s presidency of the G20 can be significantly strengthened if it succeeds in securing President Trump’s attendance. This would reinforce U.S. endorsement of South Africa’s leadership on the global stage.
Bilateral Trade Agreement: With the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) near its end, South Africa should prioritise negotiating a bilateral trade deal with the U.S. that provides predictability and growth for critical export sectors.
Mining Investment and Infrastructure Partnerships: A Memorandum of Understanding on American investment in South Africa’s mining sector, coupled with infrastructure co-investment, would boost confidence and create long-term jobs.
Reform of BEE and Regulatory Bottlenecks: Flexible approaches to Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (BEE), such as equity equivalent models, could help unlock investment in key industries including tech (e.g., Starlink), while maintaining transformation goals.
Joint Security and Regional Cooperation: Cooperation on crime prevention, border security, policing, and intelligence-sharing could benefit both nations, and position South Africa as a responsible regional anchor, especially in partnership with U.S.-aligned countries like Botswana and Rwanda.
“Ramaphosa’s use of soft power, through delegation choices and cultural diplomacy, was well-calibrated for Trump’s style,” said Hattingh. “But if South Africa does not deliver meaningful policy reform, the goodwill from this meeting could dissipate quickly.”
The CRA also cautions against misinterpreting the “America First” rhetoric that shapes U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration. “America First does not mean America alone,” said Hattingh. “The U.S. is actively seeking partnerships with stable, investor-friendly states in strategic regions. South Africa can be one of those countries, if it embraces practical reforms and positions itself accordingly.”
The meeting took place against the backdrop of intensifying global trade shifts and increasing pressure on South Africa to revitalise its sluggish economy. With the South African GDP growth averaging just 0.8% per annum from 2012 to 2023, and rising concern around regulatory uncertainty and property rights, South Africa must now demonstrate that it is serious about attracting foreign capital and playing a constructive regional role.
“Now is the time for clear commitments, not just warm diplomatic gestures,” concluded Hattingh. “What South Africa does in the weeks and months ahead will determine whether this meeting translates into real economic benefit.”
Ends
Media Enquiries:
Anneke Burns
Publicist
071 423 0079
anneke@abpr.co.za
Chris Hattingh
Executive Director
Centre for Risk Analysis
chris@cra-sa.com
About the Centre for Risk Analysis:
The CRA offers a complete spectrum of strategic intelligence reports, briefings, polls, scenarios, and bespoke advisory services on South Africa’s rapidly evolving economic, social, policy and political climate. We understand what drives South Africa’s strategic environment. We are forward-looking and work with companies that are interested in anticipating long-term risks and opportunities in order to thrive in a future South Africa and contribute to the country’s success as one of the world’s leading emerging markets. Firms that rely on our advice are robustly positioned to understand key uncertainties, identify opportunities, and navigate safely around short-, medium-, and long-term strategic risks.
To learn more, visit: https://cra-sa.com/